The Ledger
Every call. Every miss. Forever.
Each prediction is logged with a probability and a timestamp before kickoff, then graded from the play-by-play. Nothing is deleted or edited.
0
calls logged
0
graded
–
Brier score (lower is better)
First card
The first calls are logged before kickoff of Bills at Vikings, Monday Night Football, November 9. They appear here the moment they are logged.How grading works
- Before kickoff or it doesn't count. The system rejects any call logged after the game starts.
- Probabilities, not hot takes. A 70% call should hit about 70% of the time. Calibration is the score.
- Brier score = (probability − outcome)², averaged. 0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip.
- Benchmarks are a naive baseline and public models. Never betting lines.
- Append-only. Corrections are new rows that reference the old one. The full record is downloadable as CSV.